[c++] Why does C++ code for testing the Collatz conjecture run faster than hand-written assembly?

You did not post the code generated by the compiler, so there' some guesswork here, but even without having seen it, one can say that this:

test rax, 1
jpe even

... has a 50% chance of mispredicting the branch, and that will come expensive.

The compiler almost certainly does both computations (which costs neglegibly more since the div/mod is quite long latency, so the multiply-add is "free") and follows up with a CMOV. Which, of course, has a zero percent chance of being mispredicted.

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