You may wonder how to interpret your probability in the context of looking for a correlation in a particular direction (negative or positive correlation.) Here is a function I wrote to help with that. It might even be right!
It's based on info I gleaned from http://www.vassarstats.net/rsig.html and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Student%27s_t_distribution, thanks to other answers posted here.
# Given (possibly random) variables, X and Y, and a correlation direction,
# returns:
# (r, p),
# where r is the Pearson correlation coefficient, and p is the probability
# that there is no correlation in the given direction.
#
# direction:
# if positive, p is the probability that there is no positive correlation in
# the population sampled by X and Y
# if negative, p is the probability that there is no negative correlation
# if 0, p is the probability that there is no correlation in either direction
def probabilityNotCorrelated(X, Y, direction=0):
x = len(X)
if x != len(Y):
raise ValueError("variables not same len: " + str(x) + ", and " + \
str(len(Y)))
if x < 6:
raise ValueError("must have at least 6 samples, but have " + str(x))
(corr, prb_2_tail) = stats.pearsonr(X, Y)
if not direction:
return (corr, prb_2_tail)
prb_1_tail = prb_2_tail / 2
if corr * direction > 0:
return (corr, prb_1_tail)
return (corr, 1 - prb_1_tail)