You can have great success and great performance either way. MSDN runs off of ASP.NET so you know it can perform well. PHP runs a lot of the top websites in the world. The same can be said of the databases as well. You really need to choose based upon your skills, the skills of your team, possible specific features that you need/want that one does better than the other, and even the servers that you want to run this site.
If I were building it, I would lean towards PHP because probably everything you want to do has been done before (with code examples how) and because hosting is so much easier to get (and cheaper because you don't have the licensing issues to deal with compared to Windows hosting). For the same reason, I would choose MySQL as well. It is a great database platform and the price is right.