While everyone else is debating algebraic formulas, I'd rather just use BASE64 itself to tell me:
$ echo "Including padding, a base64 string requires four bytes for every three-byte chunk of the original string, including any partial chunks. One or two bytes extra at the end of the string will still get converted to four bytes in the base64 string when padding is added. Unless you have a very specific use, it is best to add the padding, usually an equals character. I added an extra byte for a null character in C, because ASCII strings without this are a little dangerous and you'd need to carry the string length separately."| wc -c
525
$ echo "Including padding, a base64 string requires four bytes for every three-byte chunk of the original string, including any partial chunks. One or two bytes extra at the end of the string will still get converted to four bytes in the base64 string when padding is added. Unless you have a very specific use, it is best to add the padding, usually an equals character. I added an extra byte for a null character in C, because ASCII strings without this are a little dangerous and you'd need to carry the string length separately." | base64 | wc -c
710
So it seems the formula of 3 bytes being represented by 4 base64 characters seems correct.