It's possible to effectively define a variable that can be used in both the SELECT, WHERE and other clauses.
A subquery doesn't necessarily allow for appropriate binding to the referenced table columns, however OUTER APPLY does.
SELECT A.identifier
, A.name
, vars.MONTH_NO
, TO_NUMBER(TO_CHAR(B.last_update_date, 'YYYYMM')) as UPD_DATE
FROM table_a A
, table_b B ON A.identifier = B.identifier
OUTER APPLY (
SELECT
-- variables
MONTH_NO = TO_NUMBER(DECODE( A.month_no
, 1, 200803
, 2, 200804
, 3, 200805
, 4, 200806
, 5, 200807
, 6, 200808
, 7, 200809
, 8, 200810
, 9, 200811
, 10, 200812
, 11, 200701
, 12, 200702
, NULL))
) vars
WHERE vars.MONTH_NO > UPD_DATE
Kudos to Syed Mehroz Alam.