I just tested a couple paths using Excel 2013 on on Windows 7. I found the overall pathname limit to be 213 and the basename length to be 186. At least the error dialog for exceeding basename length is clear:
And trying to move a not-too-long basename to a too-long-pathname is also very clear:
The pathname error is deceptive, though. Quite unhelpful:
This is a lazy Microsoft restriction. There's no good reason for these arbitrary length limits, but in the end, it’s a real bug in the error dialog.